META Report: Microsoft's .Net
Steps Into Ring With Java

Enterprise software development (software that companies develop for use by significant numbers of users, or across multiple departments, business entities, or lines of business) represents a significant cost for IT organizations.

www.metagroup.com

Although long-term trends indicate a decline in the percentage of budget spent on software development, during the past few years this trend has been reversed, due to the need to create various Internet and extranet applications that implement unique approaches to customer and partner relationships. Most Global 2000 organizations have been seeking a set of development technologies that will support their heterogeneous environment. During the past few years, Java has dominated this landscape for new development technology. That will change in 2002.

During 2002, the .Net framework will be substantially fleshed out and become a reasonable alternative to Java development. During this period, strict cost controls and budget pressures will increase interest in developing on commodity hardware platforms and inexpensive infrastructure. There will also be a race to deliver application development tools that incorporate and simplify Web services development.

Microsoft will lead this trend with Visual Studio .Net offerings, leaving many Java development environments to catch up. As 2003 approaches, the rate of new projects will increase as Web services adoption drives new application initiatives. During this time, Microsoft's .Net framework will capture an increasing share of new application initiatives. By 2004, Microsoft will have approximately 30% of the new enterprise application market, with Java stabilizing at 40% and the remaining ones using existing technologies (legacy, CORBA, etc.). By 2005/06, segmentation of the market will be well established, and there will be many alternative development frameworks and programming models built atop these two basic infrastructures (Java and .Net).

Currently, most G2000 organizations have standardized on Java as their enterprise development platform of choice. Much of the reason for this has been the immaturity of the Microsoft alternatives and the challenges to building modern, Internet-architected applications with many of the existing frameworks. (These include distributed object systems such as CORBA, or technologies such as CICS or Tuxedo, which do not natively support Web application architectures and capabilities.) Difficulties have been compounded by a lack of component-based development and Web architecture skills. In addition, even those organizations that have standardized custom development around Java continue to bring in new applications that are based on other standards.

The importance of integration creates further challenges, as many of the Java-based Web applications were designed to represent capabilities from existing applications to new constituencies of users. This requirement for integration and interoperability will encourage companies to examine the availability of modern integration technology, especially Web services, in their development platforms.

The combination of Web services with tight budgets and proven successes of commodity-hardware-based solutions, along with the ongoing costs and shortages of component development skills, will both alter the reasons for choosing a platform and encourage many organizations to choose Microsoft technology as the primary platform for new development.

Microsoft has been very aggressive associating .Net with Web services. Visual Studio .Net will be an early entrant with associated development tools that will simplify the creation of Web services. The Web services capability in the platform, coupled with a suite of solid development tools and a position as a low-cost alternative (because of commodity hardware deployment and relative lower costs of Visual Basic and other Microsoft-specific skills), will be the primary drivers for the use of Microsoft technology.

This trend will accelerate as Web services capabilities become ingrained in the organization and Microsoft-based systems can be easily integrated with other existing legacy or Java-based environments. Microsoft will go from its present position as a high-risk strategy to a robust competitor to Java in the enterprise development space.

Continued...