Microsoft Dominates Desktops, But Can It Go Mobile?

Software giant Microsoft has cornered the market for operating systems and trounced Netscape for Internet browser supremacy. Will Bill Gates' success with desktop computers transfer to mobile devices? Not likely, say analysts.

"Mobile phones aren't PCs," Ken Hyers, m-commerce analyst for Cahners In-Stat, said.

When Microsoft recently announced its Smartphone software for cell phones, the company said it wanted mobile applications to mirror those available on the wired Internet. The idea that the Internet on a wireless device should be different than the Internet of Windows users was "garbage," said the vice president for Microsoft's Mobile Devices Division.

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Microsoft's entry into the mobile phone arena was a shot across the bow of No. 1 handset producer Nokia. Microsoft recently said it was talking with mobile phone makers looking for an alternative to Nokia. The Finnish company answered Microsoft's alliance with Intel and Texas Instruments to produce a smart phone design by licensing its own smart phone blueprints.

Adam Zawel, an m-commerce analyst for market research firm The Yankee Group, said that unlike PDAs -- which have displays suitable to porting Windows applications -- phones, with their four-line displays are not right for desktop apps. The devices demand a different approach, say the analysts.

Other than possibly making the mobile experience easier to digest, Zawel sees Microsoft's mobile aspirations having little impact on m-commerce.

In-Stat's Hyers added that before Microsoft applications can make much headway on wireless devices, the roadway of mobile infrastructure must first be paved. Better, faster wireless networks in the U.S. and Europe head Hyers' agenda. More flexible devices with enhanced displays will also be required. Most of all, says Hyers, there must be more opportunities for m-commerce to take root.

Hyers says that although Microsoft has substantial e-commerce experience and its Stinger OS for smart phones includes features such as an e-wallet and a better interface to boost mobile purchasing, the software company has tried to dominate every transaction technology developed.

Microsoft's new Pocket PC 2002 software for PDAs gives handheld computers cell phone-like functions. The move is seen as a direct response to Palm's wireless efforts and Handspring's PDA/Phone combination Treo device. Still, analysts give Microsoft's little chance of ultimate success in the mobile arena.

Hyers said Compaq's $500 Pocket PC-driven iPAQ PDA will have few takers accustomed to paying $30, or less, for a cell phone.

Symbian, the smart phone OS unit formed by Nokia, Motorola, Ericsson and Psion, has a "bloodline" that favors mobile devices of limited resources. The Pocket PC OS forces handhelds to need 64 MB of memory, compared to the 8 to 16 MB usually found in PDA using the Palm OS, says Hyers. Such overhead in handsets will mean costlier phones.

Hyers has little confidence Microsoft will get either its smart phone or Pocket PC 2002 right the first time. Pocket PC's "first two tries were horrible," the analyst said.

So, will Microsoft's new-found infatuation with the mobile world rub off on m-commerce? Not likely. But the software goliath didn't win the desktop wars in the first skirmish, either. With Intel and Texas Instruments as partners, Microsoft should have much more to say on the future of wireless devices and the success or failure of mobile commerce.

Editor's note: This article first appeared on M-Commerce Times, an internet.com site.